Malibu Barbie’s Sandbox

I’m curious about how people ‘research’ and use stats to handicap NASCAR.  There’s so much information out there and it can be interpreted in a multitude of ways, but which is most useful?

Life-time stats?  COT stats?  Practice times? Qualifying position? Current point standing?  Crew chief reports?  Track type?  Personal life?  They all play a role in handicapping a race.

For me, I’ve found that the advent of the COT era has really changed up the playing field.  [Okay, to be honest, I only experienced one year without the COT, as I'm a latecomer to NASCAR, despite having watched it some when I was growing up.]  That first year, 2006, seemed relatively easy to predict what a driver might do.  And the outstanding  rookie duo of Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer, along with their relatively low salaries, made team selection a breeze.  I found myself doing most of my research at NASCAR.com by selecting drivers with the highest average finish at whatever track was being raced upon for that particular week, which my salary cap would accommodate.  The result was a third place, overall, finish at my first ever try at fantasy sports.  Woo-hoo! Too bad I moved in the middle of the year to a non-paying state and couldn’t collect on the prize.

I now usually do the bulk of my ’stats’ research at Racing-Reference.info.  I find the ’Top Active Drivers at [insert track here]‘ which they post each week especially helpful.   These days, I tend to limit my stat relevancy to the COT era.  The car is just too different to give long term precedence to older stats.  And let’s face it, some teams have downright struggled with the conversion to the COT car, as evidenced by Kasey Kahne’s stupendous drop in performance from 2006 to 2007, due to an aero mistake in the engineering.
Kahne’s  stats:

2007 of course, was the test year of the COT, with 16 of the 36 races run in the Car of Tomorrow.  Of Kahne’s 374 laps led that year, 305 came in a single race, Bristol in late August, shortly after the discovery of the engineering snafu on the Evernham cars.   2008 saw Carl Edward’s team ‘discover’ the body shift yaw that allowed him early dominance, as well as the extra horsepower Toyota brought to the track that allowed Kyle Busch to win 8 Sprint Cup races, while 2009 has seen a resurgence of the Dodge’s due to the new R6P8 engine and the abysmal performance of the RCR team.

The COT was supposed to reduce all teams costs and level the field by making the cars more similar, but in reality, the teams with deep pockets are still  rising to the top, along with their ’satellite’ teams [Stewart-Haas Racing], while the poorer squads are finding it not only difficult to compete, their numbers are rapidly dwindling.  It is a shame to see so many teams [and talented drivers] reduced to a start-and-park mentality.  Toyota should see a significant jump in performance next year because of the withdrawal of support from American automakers.

Oops, sorry, this post was supposed to be about handicapping a race, I’ll jump off my soap box now…..

So, back to the subject at hand, I compare driver’s stats over the COT era, comparable tracks from this season, and a driver’s performance over the last 4 to 6 races, all of which helps me develop a trend.   I’ve included a recent ‘worksheet’ which I did for the Chicago race.

The bottom area of the worksheet [where the pink arrows are]  show the results for the four similar tracks to Chicago, with an average finish [AF] at the bottom of the column, then an AF over the COT era for just the Chicago track, and finally an AF for the past four races.

The center part of the sheet has to do with salary cap information for my Sandbox team, and the top area was some Pick ‘Em research.

I also like to attend the Mark Garrow [from ESPN] pre-race chats.  Besides the entertaining banter, the crew chief reports can be a valuable source of information.  They give you insight into the state of mind of the driver, whether the crew chief is confidant and who else they think could run strong for the week.  If I’m on the fence about a driver, this can often help me decide.

An example of how I use my ’stats’ handicapping is demonstrated with the  ’bet’ I made with Garrow at the last pre-race chat over the finish positions of Logano and Ragan [which I 'won' btw...!] It was based on the bottom section of information from my worksheet which had Logano with an AF of 16 over similar tracks this year, and an AF of 18 over the past four races.  Ragan’s AF’s for the same were 30.5 and 24.75.  They had similar practice times.  There was nothing to suggest that Ragan would have a break out race, and he didn’t.  Logano ended up 18th, and Ragan 25th, approximately where their AF’s said they would.

Warm fuzzies [or cold ones] and driver bias are things that have no rational explanation.   Warm fuzzies are the weird dreams you have the night before a race that impel you to take Brad Keslowski at Talladego, or a cold fuzzie in your gut that tells you to drop Jeff Gordon at Daytona.  Driver bias is something everyone should strive to overcome, let the stats and facts guide your choices.  Of course this is easier said than done after you select Mark  ’Wrinkled Raisin Man’ Martin at Atlanta & Talladega, instead of Michigan & Chicago.  I can never get him right, always a week behind, and a definite bad bias against him on my part, he didn’t even rank a column on my worksheet.  Dale Jr. is another example of bias for many people; Jr.-nation expectations die hard [or never in some cases].

I’d love to hear any great handicapping tips you might have!

Good luck this weekend, let’s hope the rubber is right this year!

xox, mb

Hey there!  Long time no see!

All I can say is a busy lifestyle makes for a bad blogger…[some highlights interspersed below].

So with no further ado…here are some random thoughts on Saturday nights race at Chicagoland.

There’s alot of talk about this being a good track for ‘Happy’ Harvick…he carried some good speed in P2, but i’m not buying him until he comes out of his funk.   I might think about Bowyer who has had some consistency lately.

May 6:  elected secretary/treasurer for my Home Owner’s Association.  They neglected to mention how much WORK this is!  Already have attended 3 Board meetings, 2 Architectural Control Board meetings and 3 general committee meetings.  I also just finished authoring a 10 page Agreement between our Association and the neighboring Association for the upkeep of the half mile parkway leading to our subdivisions.

Truex Jr. announced he’s moving to MWR next year. given EGR’s current situation, i don’t expect Truex Jr. to get much from them through the rest of the season. They might use him as the experimental guinea pig though.

May 15: Pensacola Pelican’s game, semi-pro baseball team, daughter Kristin got to sing Take Me Out To The Ballgame on the field in front of the whole crowd.

Juan Pablo is in the chase, expect him to drive for position and not do anything crazy. He WANTS TO MAKE THE CHASE and he should be a solid driver over the remaining races leading up to it.

May 2oth: went to the Paradise Bar & Grill to see awesome canadian guitar wizard Shawn Kellerman with my neighbors.  The great thing about the Paradise is that there is a bar, a restaurant type area and an outdoor picnic style beach area for famlies.  There’s always lots of kids on the beach, the water is warm and shallow, so the girls have a great time too.  Especially Kristin who loves to dance and usually gets invited to dance on stage with the band.

A new crew chief hasn’t done much for Jr. who has slipped two spots in the standings since Lance McGrew took over.  I’ve placed Jr. on mydo not use list until he shows some consistency.   I’m thinking that might happen sometime next year.  Maybe.

June 4: All end of school year parties are over, report cards and awards handed out and the kids are out of school!  Yippeeeee!!! Or maybe not, how can they be bored ALREADY?  Have 2 extra for the summer as well, a friend of one daughter whose home life is sketchy and another whose parents seperated and can’t be home alone.  That makes FIVE almost everyday, plus assorted friends.  YIKES!!!

Tony Stewart is a must have, for the foreseeable future.   jmo.

June 16:   if you like old time blues I recommend the Atlanta based Breezekings who I saw perform on the outdoor stage at the Paradise Bar & Grill.  Some Polynesian fire dancers also performed.

Ryan Newman shouldn’t hurt you either.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin all look good.

June 29th:  more Paradise! Motor City Josh, an awesome blues band from Detroit, on the outdoor stage.  He was so good, we went back with more friends on July 2nd too!

JJ has an AF of 3.3 if you throw out the crash two years ago. He is running very well right now.

Mark “Wrinkled Raisin Man’ Martin always looks great, but only finishes that way some of the time.  I see around a top 15 finish for him this week, but not much better.

Jeff Gordon really likes his car.

Both Busch brothers should have a good finish.  Kurt might be safer, he wants to stay in the chase.   Kyle might win, but will he be out to prove something to Stewart?  Win or crash, there doesn’t seem to be much inbetween for him these days.  He needs to be a bit more consistent to cement his place in the chase though.

July 3rd:  my AC unit failed, boy was it hot!  Got it defrosted and limping along until the repairman could come visit on the 6th.

I like new daddy Matt Kenseth even though his practices are nothing special so far.   His practices are usually not that exciting and he wins ,or comes close anyway. He has the second most points earned here in the last 2 races.   He has never been lower than 5th most points earned here in the last 10 races.

Biffle should be good for a top 12.

Carl Edwards’ AF here is 23.5, however, his AF this year at similar tracks [Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas & Charlotte] is 8.5. He does have a fast car this weekend.

July 9th:  Cheerleading practice starts…….and seems to never end.

Kasey Kahne is my dark horse.

Vickers, Ambrose and Logano are my budget picks for the week.

Good luck everyone!

xox, mb

bonus!!! a rare siting of malibu barbie from the Shawn Kellerman gig….

Original top 3o from Garrow’s mid-week chat, with my breakdown and notes for each!  Tires don’t seem to be an issue [thank god!] but Dodge engines sure do!

1. Tony Stewart 

Lifetime AF of 13.3, and a win here in the fall of 2008, this could easily be Tony’s first win as an owner driver.  He’s top of my charts too!

2. Jimmie Johnson

A definite threat here, tied for 6th in points at Talladega over the COT era, but FISRT over the previous five races before that, dating back to the spring ‘06 race.  Jimmie’s showing early dominance this year and should be a must have in all formats.

3. Jeff Gordon

Talladega is a feast or famine track for Jeff Gordon.  He has an impressive 15.8 lifetime AF here, over 32 races, but the COT car was not been kind to him last year, producing 19th & 38th place finishes.  He did win both races here in ‘07.  It seems this team has a much better handle on the COT now, and Gordon has momentum going in, but he is still suffering from back problems this weekend, which could affect his stamina.  

4. Kyle Busch

Unlike Jeff Gordon, the COT has helped Kyle at this track.  His AF for the COT era is 8.0 including a win last spring.  He’s looked sharp in practice this weekend, including the fastest avg. speed in P2. 

5. Mark Martin

Wrinkled Raisin Man came thru for a win last week after his 3rd pole start.  Mark has not run at Talladega in the COT and has shown much there in recent year.  He has looked sporty in practice so far this weekend, but it might be time to trade him in for a younger model, at least this week.   Plan on putting him back or acquiring him for Richmond though, where his AF for last year was 4.

6. Denny Hamlin

Maybe ranked a bit high this week…he’s had two top 5 finishes here, but also a crash last fall and some mediocre finishes early in his career here.  Add to that his AF of 16 over all super speedways and his propensity for pit road problems and it might be a week to sit him out.  On the bright side, for those who feel like gambling, he did have some good looking practices and is a top pick for Richmond with an AF of 8.8 there, including 2 wins.

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

If ever there were a track where Dale Jr. could get it together and have a great finish, you’d have to think Talladega would be the one.  At one point, between 2001 and 2004, Dale Jr. OWNED this place with an AF of 2.125, 5 wins, 4 of which were consecutive!  Ah, those were the days for the #8.  Such is not the climate the #88 finds itself in,  going into this weekend.  While that dominance will certainly help Dale Jr.’s confidence, it will take more than that to have a great finish - and he really needs a great finish.  He’s the only one in the Hendrick stable without a win this year.  He and Eury Jr. are on the hot seat, and despite protestations of not splitting up this crew, one would have to think Hendrick will step in soon if this team can’t get it together.  The key to Jr.’s weekend will be clean pitstops, good communication and keeping tabs on his temper.  Oh and did I mention he’ll need CLEAN PITSTOPS?  And just to confuse you more, Richmond is currently Jr.’s best track from a career AF standpoint.  [It's 11.1]

8. David Ragan

Unlikely as it seems, barley out of his rookie years, David Ragan has had great COT results at Talladega, with an AF of 3.5.    He’s looking sharp again this weekend in practice.

9. Kurt Busch

Maybe one of the best plate racers on the track today that has never won a plate race, Kurt will be looking to end that streak this weekend.  He has not looked particularly sharp in practice or qualifying,  but this wily veteran is off to his best start in years.   All the dodges are running the old engine this weekend, so he won’t have the extra ponies under the hood he’s enjoyed all season and Dodge has seen a fair number of engine failures this weekend.    Looking ahead, the first year of the COT was good to Kurt, and the new engine should see him return to that form.

10. Kevin Harvick

This team has been out of sync this year and a big shake up is coming after this race.  The entire crew & crew chief for the #29 will be moving to the #07’s team, and Harvick will be getting theirs in return.  This is a drastic move, considering how well Harvick has done with his outgoing crew chief Todd Barrier.  And it underscores that all teams might benefit from a shake up now and then to give them a jump start when needed.  JR. AND HENDRICK ARE YOU LISTENING?  [doubtful] Harvick had an okay 1st practice, sat out the 2nd and Q’d 19.  He’s had some limited top-10 success at Talladega, and can never be counted out.  If he can stay patient and out of trouble, he might be good for a sneaky top-10.    

11. Clint Bowyer

Bowyer seems to have Talladega in the COT figured out.  Looked great in practices and Q’d 5th, look for him to follow thru with a top-5 finish.

12. Brian Vickers

13. Jeff Burton

AF of 8 in the COT here, has not stood out so far in ‘09,  even though he’s a steady 11th in the standings, makes Burton a hard call here.  He always manages to keep his car clean and competitive and could well be in the top 10 at the end of the day.

14. Carl Edwards

15. David Reutimann

Hard to see Reutimann with a top-10 finish here, so I think this will be the race to bring him back to earth.  Still a great effort so far this year, standing 9th in the points, he’ll have Richmond next, his best track.

16. Ryan Newman

17. Matt Kenseth

18. Jamie McMurray

19. Juan Pablo Montoya

GO JPM!  Ah, come on, just because you never thought you’d be saying that, doesn’t mean you can’t root for the guy! His first pole!  He’s had one great finish [2nd in the spring '08 race] and a bunch of mediocre or worse otherwise.  He’s come a long way in this sport and I see him as a dark horse favorite this weekend.  I bet he’s REALLY glad he’s not driving a Dogde this weekend.

20. Kasey Kahne

Engine change, will start from rear.

21. Marcos Ambrose

22. A.J. Allmendinger

Engine change, will start from rear.

23. Martin Truex, Jr.

Just missing a front row start, Truex Jr. will start 3rd, his first single digit starting spot since Daytona [where he was on the pole].   He’s had very little luck here, especially in the COT where both races resulted in a crash and AF of 39.  He’s had a spotty year, with only one top-10 finish last week at Phoenix.  Could have a big finish Sunday, but is more likely to be a big disappointment.

24. Greg Biffle

On the front row with JPM, but don’t be fooled, Talladega [and superspeedways] have not been friendly to the Biff.  He generally has a finish position much lower than his start.  Not looking for him to break that mold this weekend.

25. Robby Gordon

26. Michael Waltrip

27. Bobby Labonte

28. Paul Menard

2nd place finish last fall and an AF here in the COT of 8, Menard follows this up with a 7th fastest one lap and 6th overall avg. speed for P2, then Q’d 24th.  If he can keep out of the big one and have clean pit stops, there’s no reason to think Menard can’t be top-10 again. 

29. Casey Mears

30. Elliott Sadler

Engine change, will start from rear.

It’s not quite Silly Season, but already teams are making moves and rumors are flying.

Richard Petty Motorsports has locked A.J. Allmendinger in thru 2010.  This follows Hunt Brothers Pizza picking up the sponsorship of the #44 car thru September.  The bonehead move of last year has to have been Team Red Bull’s decision not to keep this talented [and marketable!] young driver.   Instead they chose to go with rookie Scott Speed, former F1 driver, who was fired from Team Scuderia Toro Rosso [an offshoot of Team Red Bull] in July of 2007.   

Another bonehead move that is still producing repercussions is Earnhardt Ganassi’s [formerly DEI] decision to let Dale Jr. go.  Sponsorship dollars have dried up and the company now has only two full time drivers after closing down the #8 [yet another petty gesture by Teresa, keeping this number only to shut it down], and the rumor mill is churning about where Martin Truex Jr. will go after this season.   No surprises here, that a driver with the talent of Truex Jr., would be seeking a more stable, competitive team.  The early front runner seems to be Michael Waltrip Racing.  According to Lee Spencer [of FoxSports] Truex’s father was seen in the MWR pits during the Texas race.  There are several ties between Truex and MWR, his younger brother is under contract and racing late models for them.  More importantly, MWR’s general manager, Ty Norris, came over from DEI and signed Martin Truex Jr. for them as a development driver.   This would seem to be a good fit, as MWR, and partner JTG Daughtry,  are having a great year to date.

Jamie McMurray is another driver on the bubble.  Roush Fenway has to trim down to four teams next year.  Obviously  #99 Carl Edwards, #17 Matt Kenseth and #16 Greg Biffle aren’t going anywhere.  That leaves #6 David Ragan and #26 Jamie McMurray fighting for the final spot.  The #6 car has a multi year contract with sponsor UPS and continues to improve.  McMurray is sponsored by Crown Royal [27 races] and Irwin Tools [11 races] this year.  Their stats are not very different, but Ragan is perceived to be the younger, up and coming driver.

With the real Silly Season several months away, there’s sure to be more wacky rumors and hookups to come.

xox,  mb

for what it is worth… here is Mark Garrow’s top 30 for Phoenix:

  1.  Jeff Gordon 
  2.   Jimmie Johnson 
  3.  Denny Hamlin 
  4.  Tony Stewart 
  5.  Mark Martin 
  6.  Carl Edwards 
  7.  Greg Biffle 
  8.  Kyle Busch 
  9.  Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 
10.  Ryan Newman 
11.  Clint Bowyer 
12.  Kevin Harvick 
13.  Jeff Burton 
14.  Kurt Busch 
15.  Jamie McMurray 
16.  Juan Pablo Montoya 
17.  Marcos Ambrose 
18.  David Reutimann 
19.  A.J. Allmendinger 
20.  Martin Truex, Jr. 
21.  Kasey Kahne 
22.  Matt Kenseth 
23.  Bobby Labonte 
24.  David Ragan 
25.  Casey Mears 
26.  Brian Vickers 
27.  David Stremme 
28.  Paul Menard 
29.  Michael Waltrip 
30.  Reed Sorenson

I’ll give you my thoughts on this list in the next day or so.

xox, mb

xox, mb

…..bad, bad, bad idea to synchronize your laptop to the server without paying attention. Never ever let the laptop overwrite your blog files arbitrarily…..

and remember to BACKUP your files.

by following the above, you should avoid having to delete all your blog files and then uploading all your posts over again, and fixing all your post links and your comments will also survive.  this will save multiple hours of sleep deprivation.

[this is what happens when you try to write and manage websites from multiple computers]

xox, mb

Do you Twitter?  If so, drop me a line and I’ll drop you a tweet for any new Malibu Barbie Sandbox Post! 

Tweet me at www.twitter.com/SandboxNotes or come check out some of the Tweets I’m following: Jayski [super cool Nascar news headlines]; Kyle Petty; DeLana Harvick and Nascar on Fox to name a few.

xox,  mb

At approximately 35mph, Martinsville’s corners are the slowest stretch of track NASCAR drivers will navigate in a race all SEASON long.  However the average speed per lap is 92mph, meaning driver’s straight away speeds are about 150mph.  All this equates to braking, a lot of braking.  So it stands to reason that drivers who excel on road courses should do well here.  Road courses require pedal finesse and the ability to roll your car through the corners smoothly, sprint and repeat.

Jeff Gordon has been a strong road course competitor.  Kyle Busch won both road course races last year.  Juan Pablo Montoya’s only Sprint Cup victory came on a road course, and he has one to his credit in Nationwide too.

So with this theory in mind, let’s talk about drivers whose road race records make them someone to consider this weekend.  Especially with rain possibly putting a damper on practices. 

Kyle Busch has an AF of 4.2 over the last four Sprint Cup road course races [the COT era], including wins in both races from last year.  [He also has an AF of 1.5 over the two road course events he ran in the Nationwide Series last year.]  While Martinsville has not been a great track for him in the past, I think he’ll shrug that off this year and put those road skills to use.

Tony Stewart has an AF of 4.8 with one win over the same span.  Being a car owner has not slowed him down a bit.  Look for him to be sneaky good this weekend.

Juan Pablo Montoya crashed at Watkins Glen in ‘07.  Throw that out, and JPM would have an AF of 3.6 over the other three races.  Baring incident, he should be a lock for a top 15 at Martinsville where his AF is 12.8, and has the potential to be much better than that.  He looked good in today’s practice too!

Although Rousch has been having some problems with their engines, Carl Edwards has to be considered a threat here based on his road course prowess.  He has an AF of 11 in the COT era.  He’s also 5th best on the Nationwide Series road courses over the last four races.

Surprise mid price driver to watch could be Casey Mears.  He too, had one bad road race at the beginning of ‘07 putting his AF for the four race span at a still respectable 16.5, but throw that bad finish out and his AF drops to 9.75.  He certainly hasn’t show much this year and teammate Clint Boywer seems a better play, but if you are looking for a longshot, this could be your guy.  Added bonus:  +$55k salary gain at Fantasy Cup.

At the bottom of the salary charts, Aussie Marcos Ambrose should be the best finish for value on the boards.   He had transmission problems in his first Cup road course start, and finished 3rd in his second.  He has an AF of 4.8 over the last four Nationwide road courses, including a 3rd in Montreal, site of the infamous Robby Gordon punt maneuver.  Looked great in practice today, is a cap gainer at both F/C and Thunder.   Ambrose should match his top 10 finish of last week.

TOP 15 ROADCOURSE DRIVERS - COT ERA

xox, mb

is RAIN!!!   Rain all weekend long! 

Meaning limited or no practice, qualifying set by owner points.  Rookie Scott Speed is sitting in that all important number 35 spot.  And the entry list is still a bloated 48 cars - what was with all the doom and gloom over lack of sponsorship causing a drop in teams being spouted by the network coverage last weekend?

With the impending drizzle dampening our weekend hopes and potentially taking away any chance to see our favorites in action before the green flag flies, we are left to analyze past stats and current trends to pick our teams.

Topping the short list of pre-race favorites has to be Jimmie Johnson with a two race AF of 2.5 and a COT Martinsville era [4 races] AF of 1.75.  Factoring in his 3rd place finish at last week’s short track, where he has struggled in the COT, he has to be considered the favorite to win this race.   Added benefits, price gains at both Fantasy Cup [+$85k] and Fantasy Thunder [+$40k].  Owner points start him 9th here, with a decent pit box selection.  Johnson is worth the lineup shuffle needed to accommodate his salary in both Fantasy Cup and Thunder.

Jeff Gordon also has to be considered a serious threat here.  Not only does he stand first in owner points, putting him on the pole, but his AF of 3 over the last two Martinsville races and 2.75 over the COT era, prove he is a contender.   Martinsville could be the place Gordon breaks his winless streak. 2nd highest price gainer [+$95k] at Fantasy Cup and no slouch at Thunder [+$40].  However, Gordon has not done well at Texas Motor Speedway in the COT [AF of 22.5], so plan your trades accordingly.

Last spring’s winner, Denny Hamlin, could pull a repeat on Sunday as well.  He goes into the race fresh off a 2nd place finish at Bristol and the team looks to have their short track program well in hand.  They were also impressive on pit road for a change, an area which has plagued Hamlin in the past.   A qualifying rain out would put Hamlin on the outside of row 4, and his value gains of +$75k at Fantasy Cup and +$50k at Thunder, coupled with a reasonable starting value, make Hamlin a must have.

“Concrete” Carl Edwards stands 5th in the points, but isn’t having the start to his year many expected.  He’s shown steady improvement at Martinsville, and is the number one driver at TMS [literally, having won both races!!!] over the COT era.  Rousch engines have not been very reliable this year, and I’m not ready to say they’ve overcome that.  My recommendation with Carl, and all Rousch drivers, is caution.  I’d like to see the entire lot of them make it through a race [or two] with no blown engines before my confidence is restored.  With no practices this weekend, it might be wise to spread his huge salary cap around, with thoughts of picking him back up for TMS.

RCR has two cars in the top 12 with Jeff Burton lurking at 13th.  They haven’t been particularly flashy over the start of the season relying instead on a last man standing mentality.  Bowyer, in particular, has shown great patience, kept his car out of trouble, and his pit stops clean, putting him 3rd in the points, his best start ever for a season.  Harvick on the other hand, seems to be under a bit of a bad luck cloud.   All three drivers make the Martinsville top 10 list over the last 2 races, as well as new teammate, Casey Mears, who is probably not a threat to do so again. 

The Busch Brothers put together a string of four consecutive wins last year and are trying to match that mark this weekend.  Brother Kyle has the best chance to keep the streak alive, despite the fact that his last two COT races here were dismal [AF of 34.5].  His win last week at Bristol shows he has the COT and short track figured out and is a threat to win every weekend, including TMS where he has the next best COT record behind Edwards.  On the other hand, Martinsville is brother Kurt’s worst track, even pre-COT, so it would be unwise to expect much from him this weekend, even with the vast improvement Penske has shown this year.   Both brothers are good cap gainers in both locations this week, with Kyle the number one overall gainer at Thunder [+$50k], and Kurt the number 3 overall gainer at F/C [+$90k].

An interesting play for this week might be Kasey Kahne.  It looks like Richard Petty Motorsports [formerly GEM] has gotten their ‘08 woes resolved and are back on track.  Kasey moved up three spots and sits 6th in points, which would put him on the outside of row three should we have a rainout for qualifying.  He is also the number one salary cap gainer at F/C [+$100k].    While neither his Martinsville nor his recent TMS numbers look great, Kasey is another driver who looks to have found something early and certainly has the skill to take advantage of it.

America’s most popular driver, Dale Jr., looks like a good value here, with AF’s of 18 over the COT era, and 4 over the last 2 races.  He sits 19th in points and is a modest gainer at both fantasy sites.  In fact, if you throw out his poor start over the first two weeks, he’d be a solid top 10 kindof driver.  The problem is, America wants their driver to win, or at least contend for a win, and this team hasn’t shown that kind of spunk yet.  For most driver’s, being considered a top-10 driver would be a compliment, but Dale Jr. is under tremendous pressure to prove himself, win races and win that elusive championship.  This team hasn’t been able to focus well this year and the added scrutiny will not help their efforts this week.  They will have to have a flawless race, flawless pit stops for both driver and crew, and a perfectly called race from Eury Jr. to have any chance at a top 5 finish.  Especially if any of the practices or qualifying is rained out and they don’t have a chance to dial their car in.  Look for this team to continue to struggle, continue to be the center of controversy and for changes, however unwillingly, be made by team owner Rick Hendrick.

David Reutimann is an unlikely chase driver, but there he sits, 11th overall.  Throw out his one bad finish in Atlanta and he’d be sitting ALOT higher in the top 10.  Looking to be the real deal so far, a cap gainer at both sites, and low value to points return, Reutimann could be worth a roster spot, especially for upcoming TMS, where he had a 10th place finish last fall.

Generous salary arrangement at both fantasy sites has made team selection somewhat easier this year, but, especially at Thunder we are faced with picking at least one lower end driver.  Last week Marcos Ambrose stepped up and put in a top 10 performance at Bristol.  He has quietly been consistent, around a top 20 finish, and expect him to do the same this weekend.  An added benefit at Thunder is his 2nd highest value change [+$45k].  Also quietly earning back some respect after early season hype is A.J. Allmendinger, who had a bit of bad luck after Daytona, but has strung together two top 20 finishes since then.  His decent starting value and modest cap gains could free up some dollars to go after higher priced drivers, while still maintaining a floor finish of T20.

Hopefully we’ll get in some practice and qualifying to help sort out our team, but it looks like the weather will be a major player this weekend.  Here’s hoping we get some sunny skies, or at least no precipitation!

xox, mb