the outlook for Martinsville…
is RAIN!!! Rain all weekend long!
Meaning limited or no practice, qualifying set by owner points. Rookie Scott Speed is sitting in that all important number 35 spot. And the entry list is still a bloated 48 cars - what was with all the doom and gloom over lack of sponsorship causing a drop in teams being spouted by the network coverage last weekend?
With the impending drizzle dampening our weekend hopes and potentially taking away any chance to see our favorites in action before the green flag flies, we are left to analyze past stats and current trends to pick our teams.
Topping the short list of pre-race favorites has to be Jimmie Johnson with a two race AF of 2.5 and a COT Martinsville era [4 races] AF of 1.75. Factoring in his 3rd place finish at last week’s short track, where he has struggled in the COT, he has to be considered the favorite to win this race. Added benefits, price gains at both Fantasy Cup [+$85k] and Fantasy Thunder [+$40k]. Owner points start him 9th here, with a decent pit box selection. Johnson is worth the lineup shuffle needed to accommodate his salary in both Fantasy Cup and Thunder.
Jeff Gordon also has to be considered a serious threat here. Not only does he stand first in owner points, putting him on the pole, but his AF of 3 over the last two Martinsville races and 2.75 over the COT era, prove he is a contender. Martinsville could be the place Gordon breaks his winless streak. 2nd highest price gainer [+$95k] at Fantasy Cup and no slouch at Thunder [+$40]. However, Gordon has not done well at Texas Motor Speedway in the COT [AF of 22.5], so plan your trades accordingly.
Last spring’s winner, Denny Hamlin, could pull a repeat on Sunday as well. He goes into the race fresh off a 2nd place finish at Bristol and the team looks to have their short track program well in hand. They were also impressive on pit road for a change, an area which has plagued Hamlin in the past. A qualifying rain out would put Hamlin on the outside of row 4, and his value gains of +$75k at Fantasy Cup and +$50k at Thunder, coupled with a reasonable starting value, make Hamlin a must have.
“Concrete” Carl Edwards stands 5th in the points, but isn’t having the start to his year many expected. He’s shown steady improvement at Martinsville, and is the number one driver at TMS [literally, having won both races!!!] over the COT era. Rousch engines have not been very reliable this year, and I’m not ready to say they’ve overcome that. My recommendation with Carl, and all Rousch drivers, is caution. I’d like to see the entire lot of them make it through a race [or two] with no blown engines before my confidence is restored. With no practices this weekend, it might be wise to spread his huge salary cap around, with thoughts of picking him back up for TMS.
RCR has two cars in the top 12 with Jeff Burton lurking at 13th. They haven’t been particularly flashy over the start of the season relying instead on a last man standing mentality. Bowyer, in particular, has shown great patience, kept his car out of trouble, and his pit stops clean, putting him 3rd in the points, his best start ever for a season. Harvick on the other hand, seems to be under a bit of a bad luck cloud. All three drivers make the Martinsville top 10 list over the last 2 races, as well as new teammate, Casey Mears, who is probably not a threat to do so again.
The Busch Brothers put together a string of four consecutive wins last year and are trying to match that mark this weekend. Brother Kyle has the best chance to keep the streak alive, despite the fact that his last two COT races here were dismal [AF of 34.5]. His win last week at Bristol shows he has the COT and short track figured out and is a threat to win every weekend, including TMS where he has the next best COT record behind Edwards. On the other hand, Martinsville is brother Kurt’s worst track, even pre-COT, so it would be unwise to expect much from him this weekend, even with the vast improvement Penske has shown this year. Both brothers are good cap gainers in both locations this week, with Kyle the number one overall gainer at Thunder [+$50k], and Kurt the number 3 overall gainer at F/C [+$90k].
An interesting play for this week might be Kasey Kahne. It looks like Richard Petty Motorsports [formerly GEM] has gotten their ‘08 woes resolved and are back on track. Kasey moved up three spots and sits 6th in points, which would put him on the outside of row three should we have a rainout for qualifying. He is also the number one salary cap gainer at F/C [+$100k]. While neither his Martinsville nor his recent TMS numbers look great, Kasey is another driver who looks to have found something early and certainly has the skill to take advantage of it.
America’s most popular driver, Dale Jr., looks like a good value here, with AF’s of 18 over the COT era, and 4 over the last 2 races. He sits 19th in points and is a modest gainer at both fantasy sites. In fact, if you throw out his poor start over the first two weeks, he’d be a solid top 10 kindof driver. The problem is, America wants their driver to win, or at least contend for a win, and this team hasn’t shown that kind of spunk yet. For most driver’s, being considered a top-10 driver would be a compliment, but Dale Jr. is under tremendous pressure to prove himself, win races and win that elusive championship. This team hasn’t been able to focus well this year and the added scrutiny will not help their efforts this week. They will have to have a flawless race, flawless pit stops for both driver and crew, and a perfectly called race from Eury Jr. to have any chance at a top 5 finish. Especially if any of the practices or qualifying is rained out and they don’t have a chance to dial their car in. Look for this team to continue to struggle, continue to be the center of controversy and for changes, however unwillingly, be made by team owner Rick Hendrick.
David Reutimann is an unlikely chase driver, but there he sits, 11th overall. Throw out his one bad finish in Atlanta and he’d be sitting ALOT higher in the top 10. Looking to be the real deal so far, a cap gainer at both sites, and low value to points return, Reutimann could be worth a roster spot, especially for upcoming TMS, where he had a 10th place finish last fall.
Generous salary arrangement at both fantasy sites has made team selection somewhat easier this year, but, especially at Thunder we are faced with picking at least one lower end driver. Last week Marcos Ambrose stepped up and put in a top 10 performance at Bristol. He has quietly been consistent, around a top 20 finish, and expect him to do the same this weekend. An added benefit at Thunder is his 2nd highest value change [+$45k]. Also quietly earning back some respect after early season hype is A.J. Allmendinger, who had a bit of bad luck after Daytona, but has strung together two top 20 finishes since then. His decent starting value and modest cap gains could free up some dollars to go after higher priced drivers, while still maintaining a floor finish of T20.
Hopefully we’ll get in some practice and qualifying to help sort out our team, but it looks like the weather will be a major player this weekend. Here’s hoping we get some sunny skies, or at least no precipitation!
xox, mb
