Malibu Barbie’s Sandbox

Original top 3o from Garrow’s mid-week chat, with my breakdown and notes for each!  Tires don’t seem to be an issue [thank god!] but Dodge engines sure do!

1. Tony Stewart 

Lifetime AF of 13.3, and a win here in the fall of 2008, this could easily be Tony’s first win as an owner driver.  He’s top of my charts too!

2. Jimmie Johnson

A definite threat here, tied for 6th in points at Talladega over the COT era, but FISRT over the previous five races before that, dating back to the spring ‘06 race.  Jimmie’s showing early dominance this year and should be a must have in all formats.

3. Jeff Gordon

Talladega is a feast or famine track for Jeff Gordon.  He has an impressive 15.8 lifetime AF here, over 32 races, but the COT car was not been kind to him last year, producing 19th & 38th place finishes.  He did win both races here in ‘07.  It seems this team has a much better handle on the COT now, and Gordon has momentum going in, but he is still suffering from back problems this weekend, which could affect his stamina.  

4. Kyle Busch

Unlike Jeff Gordon, the COT has helped Kyle at this track.  His AF for the COT era is 8.0 including a win last spring.  He’s looked sharp in practice this weekend, including the fastest avg. speed in P2. 

5. Mark Martin

Wrinkled Raisin Man came thru for a win last week after his 3rd pole start.  Mark has not run at Talladega in the COT and has shown much there in recent year.  He has looked sporty in practice so far this weekend, but it might be time to trade him in for a younger model, at least this week.   Plan on putting him back or acquiring him for Richmond though, where his AF for last year was 4.

6. Denny Hamlin

Maybe ranked a bit high this week…he’s had two top 5 finishes here, but also a crash last fall and some mediocre finishes early in his career here.  Add to that his AF of 16 over all super speedways and his propensity for pit road problems and it might be a week to sit him out.  On the bright side, for those who feel like gambling, he did have some good looking practices and is a top pick for Richmond with an AF of 8.8 there, including 2 wins.

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

If ever there were a track where Dale Jr. could get it together and have a great finish, you’d have to think Talladega would be the one.  At one point, between 2001 and 2004, Dale Jr. OWNED this place with an AF of 2.125, 5 wins, 4 of which were consecutive!  Ah, those were the days for the #8.  Such is not the climate the #88 finds itself in,  going into this weekend.  While that dominance will certainly help Dale Jr.’s confidence, it will take more than that to have a great finish - and he really needs a great finish.  He’s the only one in the Hendrick stable without a win this year.  He and Eury Jr. are on the hot seat, and despite protestations of not splitting up this crew, one would have to think Hendrick will step in soon if this team can’t get it together.  The key to Jr.’s weekend will be clean pitstops, good communication and keeping tabs on his temper.  Oh and did I mention he’ll need CLEAN PITSTOPS?  And just to confuse you more, Richmond is currently Jr.’s best track from a career AF standpoint.  [It's 11.1]

8. David Ragan

Unlikely as it seems, barley out of his rookie years, David Ragan has had great COT results at Talladega, with an AF of 3.5.    He’s looking sharp again this weekend in practice.

9. Kurt Busch

Maybe one of the best plate racers on the track today that has never won a plate race, Kurt will be looking to end that streak this weekend.  He has not looked particularly sharp in practice or qualifying,  but this wily veteran is off to his best start in years.   All the dodges are running the old engine this weekend, so he won’t have the extra ponies under the hood he’s enjoyed all season and Dodge has seen a fair number of engine failures this weekend.    Looking ahead, the first year of the COT was good to Kurt, and the new engine should see him return to that form.

10. Kevin Harvick

This team has been out of sync this year and a big shake up is coming after this race.  The entire crew & crew chief for the #29 will be moving to the #07’s team, and Harvick will be getting theirs in return.  This is a drastic move, considering how well Harvick has done with his outgoing crew chief Todd Barrier.  And it underscores that all teams might benefit from a shake up now and then to give them a jump start when needed.  JR. AND HENDRICK ARE YOU LISTENING?  [doubtful] Harvick had an okay 1st practice, sat out the 2nd and Q’d 19.  He’s had some limited top-10 success at Talladega, and can never be counted out.  If he can stay patient and out of trouble, he might be good for a sneaky top-10.    

11. Clint Bowyer

Bowyer seems to have Talladega in the COT figured out.  Looked great in practices and Q’d 5th, look for him to follow thru with a top-5 finish.

12. Brian Vickers

13. Jeff Burton

AF of 8 in the COT here, has not stood out so far in ‘09,  even though he’s a steady 11th in the standings, makes Burton a hard call here.  He always manages to keep his car clean and competitive and could well be in the top 10 at the end of the day.

14. Carl Edwards

15. David Reutimann

Hard to see Reutimann with a top-10 finish here, so I think this will be the race to bring him back to earth.  Still a great effort so far this year, standing 9th in the points, he’ll have Richmond next, his best track.

16. Ryan Newman

17. Matt Kenseth

18. Jamie McMurray

19. Juan Pablo Montoya

GO JPM!  Ah, come on, just because you never thought you’d be saying that, doesn’t mean you can’t root for the guy! His first pole!  He’s had one great finish [2nd in the spring '08 race] and a bunch of mediocre or worse otherwise.  He’s come a long way in this sport and I see him as a dark horse favorite this weekend.  I bet he’s REALLY glad he’s not driving a Dogde this weekend.

20. Kasey Kahne

Engine change, will start from rear.

21. Marcos Ambrose

22. A.J. Allmendinger

Engine change, will start from rear.

23. Martin Truex, Jr.

Just missing a front row start, Truex Jr. will start 3rd, his first single digit starting spot since Daytona [where he was on the pole].   He’s had very little luck here, especially in the COT where both races resulted in a crash and AF of 39.  He’s had a spotty year, with only one top-10 finish last week at Phoenix.  Could have a big finish Sunday, but is more likely to be a big disappointment.

24. Greg Biffle

On the front row with JPM, but don’t be fooled, Talladega [and superspeedways] have not been friendly to the Biff.  He generally has a finish position much lower than his start.  Not looking for him to break that mold this weekend.

25. Robby Gordon

26. Michael Waltrip

27. Bobby Labonte

28. Paul Menard

2nd place finish last fall and an AF here in the COT of 8, Menard follows this up with a 7th fastest one lap and 6th overall avg. speed for P2, then Q’d 24th.  If he can keep out of the big one and have clean pit stops, there’s no reason to think Menard can’t be top-10 again. 

29. Casey Mears

30. Elliott Sadler

Engine change, will start from rear.